Matthew Kredell, reports for PokerNews.com on what is believed to be a vitally important year for the eventual licensing of online poker in the United States.

Online poker turned a corner in its battle with the U.S. government toward the end of 2009. The talk on Capitol Hill in the new year will be more about regulation than prohibition.

There is little doubt that 2010 will be poker's best year yet in terms of political progress. The only question is how far the industry can advance the cause for official legalization and licensing.

With Barney Frank still leading the way we're all waiting with baited breath...  READ FULL ARTICLE

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I think asking questions is one of the most important aspects of becoming better as a poker player. Anyone who doesn’t constantly think, “What is the best way to play this” and examine all the possible options will not improve as a poker player. I think it becomes even more important as you get “good” at poker to ask these questions because the leaks and mistakes you make are getting few and far between.

Some things i have been considering, is trying to solve aspects of poker where people think you can do “either” things, for this I’ve been looking over good players HH to see what they do in certain spots.

For example,
You have Ad Kd, you raise and get called from the blinds, flop comes down 2d Qs 8h. Is this a cbet or check behind? I’ve talked to many people and I’ve come back with answers arguing both sides, you can bet because its frankly a good board to cbet, you have backdoor equity and will be able to barrel a lot of turn  cards when you turn more equity or you hit your overcard.

The argument for checking is, you have some showdown value, you have backdoor equity and want to see that equity, you hand is actually strong enough to be a weak bluff catcher allowing you to call a bet from various opponents on a lot of turns, when you bet the only better hands you fold out are small pairs, however when you check you allow other unpaired hands that you currently beat to get a free shot of hitting there equity which you would have folded out if you have had bet.

To me, there are good arguments for either side and I’m really not sure what is best. I’m probably leaning towards betting but i really think its a fairly close spot with no clear correct answer. Does anyone have any opinions on this? What do you think is the correct flop play?

These boys better put on a show or the Philly fans will eat them for suppa. I don’t think they’ll be disappointed. There’s potential for lots of highlight footage in this show. In terms of bets I’m running primarily with chalk bets except for one shocker…I hope. Be sure to check out the lines being offered by 5 Dimes Sportsbook, they offer not only some of the best lines available, but some very intriguing prop bets. For example Forrest finishes the fight in round 3 +1540. There are over/unders, odds to finish in the distance (Penn in the distance –130). They are definitely worth a look ,I’ve been betting with them for a few months now and I’m very happy with the lines as well as the service .

Main card picks:
Forrest Griffin +300 (Bet $100 to win $300) BetUS
BJ Penn –230 (Bet $270 to win $100) BetUS
Amir Sadollah –115 (bet $115 to win $100) Bodog
Ricardo Almeida No bet unless odds hit -130 Josh Neer –200 (Bet $200 to win $100) BetUS

Undercard Picks:
Tamdan McCrory –180 No Bet
Thales Leites –345 No Bet Aaron Riley –160 No Bet
Matt Riddle -185 (bet $185 to win $100) BetUS
George Sotiropoulos –380 No bet
Danillo Vellefort –180 No Bet

Anderson Silva (-340 BetUS) vs. Forrest Griffin (+300 BetUS)

Nobody seems to be giving Forrest much of a chance. Yes he's had his shit conked by Jardine and Evans, but he's also stepped up and beat Rampage and Rua...That's huge, really. Anderson of course could put him away or possibly submit him. But Forrest is a machine and if he stays outside, works the leg kicks, and then shows off his new wrestling skills with some takedowns, he could hammer his way to a decision, or TKO…really!

Griffin’s size advantage in this fight should not be overlooked, he walks around at 240 and 6’3”. Silva’s walking weight is about 225. This fits right into the formula for a fighter to beat Silva. The other key ingredient is The ability to deal with an elite counter striker, Forrest has demonstrated this. The fight should be bad ass and the fact that Griffin has a real chance to topple the spider makes it even more exciting.

My first look at this fight I gave Griffin a 20-25% chance, but after looking closer at both of their training camps and looking closer at how these two match up in each aspect; I think Griffin wins 35-40% of the time. So yes, Silva should win, but Griffin wins often enough that at +300 there is a huge betting edge and it’s a bet I’m making.

Prediction: Griffin via TKO, Bet 1 unit to win 3 via BetUS

BJ Penn (-230 BetUS) vs Kenny Florian (+200 Bodog)

Technique or power, ground or striking? Typical questions for any match up, but in this one it's a bit cloudy. BJ's prowess on the ground is well know, but his finishes on the ground typically are initiated with strikes. Penn has greatly improved his cardio and has very smooth technical boxing with the fortunate addition of heavy hands. On top of all that, at light weight he's surprisingly strong and was not at a strength disadvantage with even the likes of Sherk. In the 155 division, no one has had enough power to control Penn on the ground, clinch, or feet. Does Florian?

Kenny, has continued to grow as a fighter as well as physically. He's put on a good amount of muscle over the last two years and now is able to comfortably grapple with any lightweight without having to rely solely on technique. His Muy Thai is also very impressive, especially his use of kicks to maintain a reach advantage and create space against grapplers.

In my eyes, Kenny is still at a disadvantage in most aspects of this fight. His striking is good but, it takes overwhelming power to control BJ so you can pummel that rock of a head endlessly (St. Pierre). He's a BJJ black belt, but he's not submitting the Hawaiian gumby. His best chance is the not so exciting prospect of out working BJ for 5 rounds. The last one is a real probability and if Florian can avoid getting lit up in the first two rounds he'll have a real chance of picking away at BJ in the final 3 rounds to pull out a huge decision.

My pick is BJ Penn to hand Kenny his first TKO loss since Diego lit him up in 2005. But if you think he can weather the storm and don't trust BJ's conditioning there's value in a Florian bet at +200.

Prediction: Penn via TKO, Bet 2.3 units to win 1 via BetUS

Amir Sadollah (-115 Bodog ) vs. Johny Hendricks (-100 BetUS)

Amir Sadollah is 1-0 in professional MMA, defeating C.B. Dollaway by armbar in the series finale. Sadollah is holds a black belt in Sambo. Amir trains with Xtrme Couture and is coming off a nearly 14 month hiatus due to a broken clavicle and staph infection.

Johny Hendricks (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) fought in the WEC before the welterweight division became part of the UFC. He’s a four-time All-American and two-time national champion from Oklahoma State. Hendricks trains at Team Takedown…which is a separate and very interesting story all it’s own…(Team Takedown sponsors the fighters offering seven-year contracts that include: salaries plus expenses, including houses, training, medical coverage and cars in exchange for half of their earnings).

Right, on to the fight. Amir’s advantage is in the ground game even from the bottom, while Hendricks holds an advantage in takedowns and GNP. In the end, even if Amir is being taken down he’ll be set up to finish the fight via submission. I still have questions about Sadollah’s year off but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and back him in this fight.

Prediction: Sadollah via submission, Bet 1.15 units to win 1

Kendall Grove (+150 BetUS) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-165 BetUS)
Ricardo Almeida (10-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC) submission guru with not so great wrestling vs Kendall Grove (10-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) loooong Muy Thai striker who sometimes forgets he’s 6’6”. Each of these fighters haven’t quite lived up to everyone's hopes or expectations but they both have the tools to put the other away.

Grove must use his reach in this fight and avoid his favorite position the clinch. Almeida needs the fight to hit the ground and his shot sucks, but if Grove moves inside and starts throwing knees, it will be all to easy to get Grove down and detach one of those long limbs. As the fight wears on I think it will be apparent that Kendall is not going to get a KO and eventually Ricardo will wade in get Grove to the ground and quickly submit him.

I don’t completely like the odds on Almeida, I’ll wait to see if it gets closer to –130 or –125.

Prediction: Almeida via submission, Bet none until –130.

Josh Neer (-200 BetUS) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+190 Bodog)
Look for an exciting fight between these two well-rounded lightweights. Josh Neer (25-7-1 MMA, 4-4 UFC) trains with Pat Miletich in Iowa. This will be Neer’s 4th fight as a UFC light weight and he really seems to be enjoying the fruits of being big for the division. Kurt Pellegrino (13-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) is a multiple time NAGA and Grapplers Quest winner and holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu.

This on is pretty simple If Neer can keep this fight standing, he should knock out Pellegrino. If Pellegrino gets the fight to the ground, he has the skills to finish Neer, but Neer's size and strength will make him tough to submit. Pelligrino’s striking isn’t that bad he’ll just be out gunned and facing a serious reach gap.

Prediction: Neer via TKO, Bet 2 units to win 1

I haven't posted squat in over a year, so why not just put up a pick of a cute chick. There's cards involved in the picture right?

Doublas put together a very nice post about self-decption in poker and how it effects your game, results, and image.

"Deception and poker go hand-in-hand. The game is all about making others think one thing when the truth is the opposite. In a situation where lies and deceit are all part of the game, it’s hard to be honest with the one person you need to tell the truth to: yourself. Here are some ways poker players self-deceive.

Self-Deception and Table Image in Poker

In poker, the table image is how others at the table perceive you. If you arrive at the table with a mountain of chips spilling all over, have a very loud personality and start betting into every pot, you will probably be perceived as......."

Click here to check his blog and read the rest of the post.

I'm back from beyond and sporting a new injury (broken arm), but if I take my time I can peck away at the keyboard with my left hand and I can sure as hell place bets! I want to mention a couple of nice changes at two of the sportsbooks I use.

First, Bodog has put a new payout method to use which lets you load winnings onto a debit card that you can use at a cash machine or store, very similar to the good old days with Netteller. You can have your winnings within a couple of days instead of waiting a week or more for a check!

Second, BetUS has totally revamped their sportsbook using a very slick interactive layout, which lets you see all of your betting options and payouts for your selections, ect. They've also added an interesting new twist, not only are they one of the only books offing Parlays for MMA, but now they offer multi-sport parlays and teasers. It's nice to have choices and the parlays can be a valuable tool when fight-cards are packed with heavy favorites. Also BetUS has moved their poker onto the Cake Poker Network, with great games.

You wanna make a bet....

Wow, Keyra Augustina just blows my mind. I literally can't think for half an hour after I see her.

I know it's a poker blog but there's alot of interest in this fight.

In the beginning of January Lesnar was coming in as a fairly heavy favorite (-200) and I suggested that due to experience and the match up of skills Mir should not be the underdog in this fight and the time was ripe for a bet on Mir at +160 (Mir vs Lesnar original betting post). Now that some time has past and bettors with more MMA experience have started bringing in their money, the lines have evened up a fair bit.

Mir is still a slight dog at +115 and a bet on him now isn't as strong of a value, so lets look at the match up and see what the straight pick is.

Frank Mir, former Heavywight Champ, has been slowly working his way back into top form since his accident in 2004. Just as he was looking most confident and fit, he was quickly stopped by Brandon Vera at UFC 65. Nine months later he returned to face another very strong striker in Antonio Hardonk and finished him with a kimura in just over a minute. Mir has been in the cage with many larger and stronger opponents, but what we've never seen is how Mir deals with a great wrestler. Most of his opponents have not been trying to take him down pass his guard and pound him out. Ideally this style will feed into his BJJ game, where Mir is fantastic at taking advantage of any mistake. On the other hand, perhaps Brock will fit the mold of Matt Hughes or Randy Couture who used great wrestling and athleticism to overwhelm fighters of many styles.

Brock Lesnar as an MMA fighter is pretty much a complete unknown. His debut fight did not provide a ton of insight. He did show he can still wrestle and is extremely strong, but his competition was quite weak and provided no test of any kind. A few fighters he trained with (Tim Sylvia) say he doesn't deal well with strikes or kicks and predicted an easy win for Mir. Of course from Tim's perspective he's remembering the Mir of old and his broken arm. Lesnar's best shot at a win is simple game plan... Takedown, control, pound, control, pound.

Lesnar will likely bring the heat early and Mir will look to stay outside weather the storm and search for errors and openings. Eventually Brock will get Mir on his back and then the show will be on. Brock will have a very hard time passing the guard of Frank and while he is working for that control his arms, legs, and neck will all be in danger. Mir will likely take some significant damage on his back, but during one of the many scrambles, Lesnar will likely offer up a limb for the taking and Frank will capitalize.

In short, Frank should be the favorite in this fight due to experience alone, but in terms of a match up he has slight advantage with the combination of his stand up and BJJ, meaning he's a good value at any odds that have him as a dog.

You wanna make a bet....

Sometimes it's best not to talk too much...